OPINION . Frances Sanuy 10/23/2013

Economic recovery and confidence  


"Spanish companies do not stop sell assets located abroad and to refinance indebtedness on the inside"

Francis Sanuy

A Warren Buffet is known by the name of the sage of Omaha or oracle or prophet and, indeed , on several occasions has merit to hold this designation . It is a person who practices what he preaches and , for example, be fearful when others recommended are driven by greed and , inversely , be bold when others opt for caution . Specifically , acted this way in September 2008 , ie five years ago , when there was the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers bank , which had for president in Spain and Portugal as minister Guindos . On that occasion , in March 2009 , asset prices had dropped to bargain levels Buffet which he used to buy securities that have now risen more than 50 percent. Naturally , each time is different and now the pending withdrawal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve could represent a cause of volatility . In fact, central banks have taken steps to ease quantitative , but that was not enough for a recovery that has yet to occur due to the high unemployment rate . So , in this situation, formulated expectations and begin to boast some imprudent to have left because of the recession . In Spain it is possible that as a matter of decimal Bank of Spain announced solemnly that on the day this article goes live . And that is why Rajoy and his government want to boast that we are heading towards the exit of the crisis. Minister Montoro , after denying the evidence of the reduction of wages and loss of purchasing power of the classes modest applause and calls now accused of lack of patriotism who dare not join the choir of undocumented or gullible members framed the " claque " government .

In Ireland , for example, the lyrics are the same , are we out of the recession thanks to exports and a small rise in consumption that has meant a quarter of + 0.4% as part of a contraction - 1.2% for the whole year . Naturally , the unions have expressed their disagreement with the calculations optimistic. And the employer has requested the eventual small recovery will not be damaged by a tax increase . Other voices have observed the German minister , Schäuble , who disagree with his view that the euro crisis has already passed , which is not true and for which much remains to run . Moreover, there are many who think that the austerity crusade has been a severe existential crisis for the euro area. Apart from that German prosperity can coexist with the sacrifices of their neighbors . The EU commissioner Olli Rehn also said the version that recovery is imminent , as , indeed , it was said a few years ago with the sweaty picture of lights at the end of tunnel ( repeated almost as inevitable as the green shoots ) already makes glimpsed the possible return of confidence . Nobody tells us , but by September which pays the same policies that have failed so far in trying to grow and create jobs , will now be working.

Meanwhile, Italian and Spanish bonds with lower risk premiums have been well accepted . In December 2012 they did a revival despite the danger posed by the huge debts that had financed this year . The voices began to refer , then, that some loans affordable and available for everyone to help cure the disease in Europe. I came out against preachers masochistic contemplation of one's own cultural pessimism against decay and stereotyped condition that credit be oxygen savior. Montoro and Rajoy will ask , so what is the cause of persisting doubts and lack of confidence . But if you stopped a little more attention to the real desire without thinking surely noticed that Spanish companies should not stop sell assets located abroad and to refinance indebtedness on the inside. Bankia, for example, has sold the division in Miami so that President Blesa, the intimate Aznar , are both represented at meetings of the adjoining mansion in Florida. The Spanish presence out more now serves to separate the external financing of foreign affiliates in local refinancing onerous conditions in a country that has been necessary for a bank bailout paid for by the way, for taxpayers who are victims of entities credit where satraps who have seriously injured clients , above, s'autoadjudiquen superobscenes payments instead of responding in court management . Incidentally, it is surprising that the Tax Office does not show more active in cases that seem clear. P. former . Has now sanctioned by the Bishop of Bilbao 30,000 for his involvement in the case of CajaSur , that box that depended on the Church and the civil power to Rato Minister's decision to request the Manager, that canon that Castillejo , part of which was paid him for life was in favor of his sisters . Nor that the church has apologized Pope Francis has done Gorbachev with " glasnost " and " perestroika " Vatican beatified without , however, the Basque priests executed by the side of Franco 's fascist troops .

In any case, it is paradoxical that over 50 % of the revenues of the companies of the Ibex - 35 were generated outside the euro zone. Is reversed , then the procedure would be to buy with money earned inside. A rating agency has passed the " rating " triple- A to junk in the case of Telefonica ( purchases of $ 85,000 m . 57.000m and debt . During the last 10 years) and Santander has announced that the exit stock of foreign subsidiaries as has been done in Mexico. Where to go, what they buy now becomes the savior . If banks are also additional items that are necessary for the sale of shares . First, the Basel III rules are strict determinants of banking and the cross- shareholdings , such as , for example, in the box that is most exposed to this model also discourages the bank bailout and supervision by regulators concerned. BBVA , for example , despite having less cobwebs CaixaBank , has sold a package of its 9.9 per cent of China Citic . It is therefore not surprising that Spain does not inspire confidence either end perspective view and far . The Gürtel case , Barcenas , etc. . Questions inspire organizations like Credit Suisse have had no convincing answers . To finish things off, spring is not the Corte Ingles and Banco Santander has entered the financial department stores have been forced to refinance .


In general , the policy of the law of the jungle Madrid has not reversed the trend of declining supermarkets , and also meant the destruction of small local family business . Pescanova has collapsed empire of Galicia . Bounce out of this issue that Carceller father ( DAMM ) and son are accused . To make matters worse , explodes FAGOR , the joy of the Mondragón cooperative accounting for 3.2% of the GDP of the Basque Country . On the basis of PP governs the service of kleptocracy , wages have lost 6.4% in the third year of its purchasing power. Moreover , according to Goldman Sachs , Spain is more vulnerable to external financial shock has on its banks a sword of Damocles for lack of a union bank . So sacrilegious , 90% of the pension fund is invested in government bonds . In Mataró , there are 10,000 victims of the preferred play . Only 10% of Latin American multinationals entering Europe via Spain. The banks have asked for 5,000 million refinanced loans to total current 230.000m . Mr . Rajoy , in these conditions who want to inspire confidence ? I botiflers manipulating the Promotion of Labor , the Meeting Point , the Equestrian , literary prizes and all kinds of organizations benefiting from unfair or occupied by seats on boards of directors or gratificables can easily keep playing to the traps • Archives Mr. Lari who designed . Chávarri inventor of the maneuver fake presidential delegation invited by someone not where you think that ? In addition to trust, maybe you should be a little respect or cordiality , although the issues of Catalonia you are , as said , only under water . President , as you know . Mani has here there are always some on the orders of the hottest sun.